Here are our top four bets from tonight’s MLB roster.
MLB Odds and Choices
Cubs vs. Brewers
DJ James: Freddy Peralta has definitely shot an inconsistent start to his campaign in 2022. He owns 4.08 ERA but owns 3.23 xERA with favorable accessories. He will, however, face Justin Steele, who was impressive in his own right with a 3.25 ERA and 3.43 xERA. This is an accidental rivalry much closer than you might expect.
Yes, the Brewers are the better of these two teams. They have the best Bullpen (3.55 .). xFIP), while Cubs ranked 28th in xFIP (4.58) in August, after giving away major pieces at the trade deadline. However, Cubs averaged the league against a right-hand throw in August, while the Brewers ranked 23rd in the WRC+ at 76 against the left hand.
The Cubs will need to find a way to reach the ninth inning. Rowan Wake, Brandon Hughes, and Mike Leiter, Jr. are the best relief options with 4.00 xFIPs. Steele has gone at least six rounds in each of his last few starts, so he can dig in as needed.
This is the reason for supporting the cubs. Steele will negate the issues with the recent Bull of the Cubs by entering the sixth inning and handing the game over to the heart of the Remaining Pen.
The brave vs the cardinals
Brad Cunningham: I’m not sure Spencer Strider gets proper praise for what he does as a novice. At just over 100 rounds, it has a 2.50 xERA, a 13.50K/9 rating and allows for .248 xwOBA.
All of these are leading Major League Baseball shooters who have thrown at least 100 innings.
What’s even crazier is that he does all this while throwing the fastball more than 67% of the time, but the guy is good. Strider averages 98.2 mph on his Fastball, which translated to opponents having only 0.29 xBA against.
He also faced the Cardinals again on July 7, where he went six rounds, leaving only hitters and 12 hitters.
José Quintana is a slightly negative regression candidate with his ERA sitting at 3.45, but his xERA being at 4.12. Quintana has a four-pitch arsenal of quick ball, changeover, curveball, and drill. The Braves left-hand version of those four pitches fared well: +26.6 playback value, .256 xBA, .341 xwOBA.
Guardians vs. Sailors
Jules Posner: Shane Pepper has been rocking his last five starts, posting a 1.62 ERA with a 2.01 ERA on that stretch. He’s also been stronger on the road this season and will be facing an attack from the Mariners that has been below the league average at home against RHP over the past two weeks.
Logan Gilbert hasn’t been rocking his last four starts. It posted 7.97 PM with 5.88 FIP On that run he will face one of the best road offenses against RHP this season.
While the IRGC offensive hasn’t been hot on the road lately against RHP (only 99 wRC+), it must be due to a positive draw given that they were in the top five units this season.
The money line It’s a virtual currency to flip tonight, but the guard at -0.5 runs the first five rounds at +120, which is a good game as well as playing with money.
Guardians vs. Sailors
Charlie Distorko: Nothing’s better than sweating out the last game of Friday’s roster, and that’s where I turn when Shane Pepper takes on Logan Gilbert in a battle between the playoff hopefuls.
Let’s start with Bieber. Despite dropping speed a season ago, Bieber remains one of the best arms in the American League. Yes, his strike rate is below 25 for the first time since his rookie season, but his barrel average has been at professional best and predicted benchmarks lie in under 3 seconds, around 3.10 ERA.
Early on it was a lackluster candidate for me, but Bieber figured it out. Although still a bit high, his damage rate is the lowest since 2018 and his gait rate is 5.5 percent elite. Bieber has been great on the road this season and holds a 1.71 ERA over 26 1/3 runs in August.
The same couldn’t be said of Logan Gilbert who was heading in the opposite direction. After a hot start to the season, the right-handed tune was hit 7.97 ERA during 20 1/3 innings in August.
It’s also noticeable that his ERA almost jumps when running when viewing T-Mobile Park.
Gilbert ranks in the lowest 5 percent of all shooters in the hardest hit rate and has opponents .257 xBA and .421 xSLG, both in the 25th percentile. And unlike Bieber, Gilbert’s xERA sits all the way at 4.26, more than half a stroke higher. from his ERA of 3.52.
It was due to the negative pullback a long time ago and it finally hit it last month. All to say I love The Guardians on the ML tonight. Cleveland is a pest in the plate because they don’t hit and they should be able to get rid of Gilbert while Bieber quietly continues his August rally.