Democrats believe President Biden had a great August mood and hope that translates into momentum for his downfall — both legislative and electoral.
Congress returns next week after a month-long recess and Labor Day is the unofficial start of the general election campaign season.
Biden in August signed into law a bipartisan semiconductor bill and a sweeping Democrat-only package to combat climate change and tackle health care costs. He announced a drone strike that killed the al-Qaeda leader. The White House cheered the positive headlines of low gasoline prices. Biden’s poll numbers began to rise.
Democrats, including Biden, now feel confident. It feels like a windy environment that wasn’t what he had anticipated several months ago, said Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way.
President’s approval rate Jumped 9 points in a month to 40 percent, according to a new Quinnipiac poll, which Gallup conducted in August 44 percent of respondents agree From his position as president – the highest number in a year – after his popularity rating hit a record low of 38 percent in July.
A Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday Democrats found with She leads Republicans by three points when voters were asked which party they would return to in their congressional district if the midterm elections were held today.
Evan Zappin, a lobbyist and former official with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), said the current momentum on Biden’s agenda is “fantastic timing” ahead of the November midterm elections. Democrats’ chances of holding on to the Senate increased over the summer as Democrats’ pressure in the polls rose while Republican candidates struggled to gain traction in some key states.
“The history is against the Democrats in this election, the poll numbers don’t look great, but the momentum is everything in politics. So having some momentum in the election, I think it’s definitely in the direction you’re looking at,” Zabian said. Or not, we’ll find out.”
However, Republicans are still widely expected to regain control of the House of Representatives. Republicans point out that the president’s numbers – a metric often used to predict the outcome of midterm elections – may improve but remain low.
“It’s a perception that you’re on a hotline,” said David Urban, a Republican Party strategist who served as first advisor to former President Trump for 2016 in Pennsylvania. “His numbers are still in his low forties.”
Biden has also come under some criticism from moderate Republicans and Democrats for his decision last month to cancel some student loan debt for millions of borrowers, a case the Republican Party believes could be used against Biden in the midterm.
Orban said student loan policy “couldn’t be more divisive”.
Part of the reason Biden has fallen in the polls is due to months of internal wrangling among Democrats over a comprehensive domestic policy bill. The measure looked dead before the announcement of a surprise deal between Senator Joe Manchin (DW.Va) and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (DNY) on climate cuts, health and taxes.
Democrats believe the passage of this bill — officially known as the Inflation Cuts Act — will help convince voters that the party is working to address kitchen table concerns.
said Tom Perez, a former DNC president who serves as the co-chair of the American Democratic Group Cobree.
Communicating this progress to voters is the next urgent challenge facing the White House and its proxies, said John Labombard, a top aide to Senator Kirsten Senema (D-Arizona).
“My view is that my party has traditionally been not very good at communicating with the American people in a clear and sustainable way what we have achieved for them, so I would like to see us fight this historical trend so that we are not distracted by cross-party disagreement or critics that we are not distracted by cross-party disagreement or pundits that we are not distracted by cross-party disagreement or pundits that we are looking for,” said LaBombard, senior vice president at Rokk Public Affairs. We want to focus on what we haven’t done.
There is still a long way to go until the midterm elections, and three months in politics can seem like a lifetime, he said.
“I hope the momentum is real and can continue for the next eight or nine weeks, but that depends on Democrats ranging from the progressive left to the moderate centrist promoting those legislative achievements in a concise and sustainable way as well,” Labombard said.
Historically, voters have begun to pay attention to the fall midterm elections, said Nadim El-Shamy, former chief of staff for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). But the Supreme Court’s decision to repeal federal abortion protections and pass health care law and climate policy got people’s attention over the summer.
“August surprise was like a month of action. In September, you present your case to voters, they vote for me because of x or y. You don’t do that anymore, you simply go to September based on what you’re doing,” said Shami, director of policy at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck. on what has already been done.
The latest poll that put Democrats three points ahead of Republicans also found that abortion was a major issue for voters, ahead of the economy and inflation.
Democrats also point to signs that the conservative Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade energizes the Democratic base ahead of the midterms and is attracting some independents and Republicans, especially in states with strict laws to restrict abortions.
“I continue to believe that one of the biggest factors in this election is the overturning of Roe v. Wade,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “It’s a game changer.”
Lake described a recent focus group in which female voters called the abortion rule “a deal-breaker” and accused Republicans of not caring about women. Democrats have exceeded expectations in every special election held since the ruling, including winning two seats in the House of Representatives.
But there are several potential pitfalls this fall that could distract from Democrats’ victories this summer, including discussions about the ongoing resolution, funding for Ukraine amid its war with Russia and discussions about how much funding should go to efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.
Failure to pass an ongoing resolution will result in a government shutdown, which does not bode well for either party in an election year. Meanwhile, the president has succeeded in obtaining funding for Ukraine from Congress, but has struggled to get more COVID-19 funding.
Labombard also noted that there is a chance for “more surprises” from Congress in September, such as legalizing marriage equality or the electoral reform movement. These will be “really important cherries on top” of a truly substantive conference, he said.
I think that there is an external opportunity to complete the electoral counting law before the midterm elections. But I think you’re going to see some spending bills and more nuts and bolts over the next month, and I expect the President will have a very busy travel schedule because he’s no longer box office toxins,” Kessler said.
Biden has been completing his travels and turning his focus to the 2022 midterm elections. As of Monday, he will have traveled three times in one week to Pennsylvania — a state pivotal to his 2020 victory that includes major midterm races.
He gave a prime-time speech from Philadelphia on Thursday describing former President Trump and his Republican allies as threats to democracyClarifying his message to voters this fall will not only enact political gains.
“You think August voters didn’t pay attention – this has always been political history – but that’s not the case,” Al-Shami said. “They’ve been paying attention, and I think that’s why you’re seeing momentum within Democratic voters all the time, heading into September.”